There are currently nearly fourteen percent more single-family listings for sale on MLS-PIN than there were last February.  Those extra listings translate into a larger supply of housing for sale across all of the Bay State and in each of the sub-markets shown in the chart below.

However, with just a two month supply of available homes in Massachusetts and even less inventory in Eastern MA, housing supplies still remain painfully low.  Despite the increased number of homes for sale on the MLS now, prospective home buyers this spring may very likely still face a daunting challenge finding decent homes at affordable prices. 

For most housing price brackets, still not much from which to choose

The problem confronting buyers in the Bay State today is not simply an inadequate inventory of homes for sale. While housing supplies in MA have been tightening over the last few years, Massachusetts home prices have at the same time been hitting all-time highs.  The resulting toxic combination of low housing supplies and high home prices has skewed the mix of homes on the market very much towards the high end of the price spectrum.  While there are single-family homes for sale in every city and town in the Commonwealth, many of these homes carry very high price tags.  There’s very little to be had in most communities in the more affordable price ranges!

The following chart of the current inventory of single-family homes in Franklin, MA illustrates this bedeviling effect.

The chart depicts the supply of single-family homes for sale in Franklin, MA by price bracket.  The chart shows a stark reality.  While there are relatively plenty of homes for sale in Franklin priced above $600,000 (see the twenty-four months of supply in the $700,000s), single-family homes in town priced below $600,000 are in extremely short supply.

Homes priced below $600,000 in Franklin are “hot”

It’s easy to see why single-family homes under $600,000 in Franklin, Massachusetts are “hot.”  Below $300,000, there are currently no single-family homes for sale in Franklin – none!  And for homes priced between $300,000 and $599,999, there are very slim pickings, most of these price brackets having only a fractional month of supply.  Only for homes in the $400,000s is there more than one month of inventory in Franklin.  And the $400,000 bracket tops out at a very paltry one and a half months of offerings. 

This does not mean any house priced under $600,000 in Franklin will automatically sell quickly and with no issues. Proper pricing remains very important, despite the low inventory of affordable properties in town.  The asking price for any home must reflect the key factors that determine market value: age, condition, and location. 

Even in a red-hot price bracket, a home seller CAN overprice and find tough going getting offers.  There have been quite a number of Franklin listings, both this year and in 2018, priced in the $300,000s, $400,00s and $500,000s that sat unsold for weeks and even months due to simple, basic overpricing. 

 (Contact Warren Reynolds for help setting the correct asking price for your property.)

Homes priced above $700,000 in Franklin are “not”

In Franklin, as asking prices head towards $700,000, the intensity of buyer demand generally wanes.  Fast sales of homes asking above $700,000 in Franklin can and do happen.  But for the most part, homes priced above $700,000 in Franklin, MA can find themselves fighting the headwinds of competition from similarly priced listings in other cities and towns in the broader region around Franklin. 

Franklin offers many benefits that make it a top choice for home buyers in the greater I-495 area.  Franklin was recently named the second safest city in the entire United States.  It enjoys a surprisingly broad array of cultural resources that are hard to duplicate in other area communities.  Franklin has a beautiful new high school and is home to a top-performing charter school.  Add in a commuter-friendly location, an attractive housing stock with low property taxes, plentiful shopping and services, superb recreational resources, and commuter rail service to Boston, and you have a winner!

And yet, home buyers looking for a single-family home priced $700,000 or higher in the greater I-495 area will find good choices in many other communities besides Franklin.  Towns such as Wrentham, Medway, Norfolk, Holliston and Hopkinton are all quality places in which to live and carry substantial inventory of homes at and above $700,000. All the extra competition can mean a longer time on the market for higher priced homes in Franklin!

Home buyers and sellers alike need an agent who really knows the local market

There’s a lot to be said for physically getting inside homes for sale and looking around carefully, week in and week out, month after month. 

That’s how an astute agent who approaches the real estate business as a profession can build local knowledge that no real estate algorithm or website can replicate.  Over years of diligently touring literally hundreds, and even thousands of homes, a dedicated real estate practitioner can develop highly valuable expertise in determining why some properties will quickly, while others will not. 

The priceless knowledge of how a local market functions is what a true professional can share with you as your agent to your lasting benefit, whether you are a home seller or a home buyer. It’s that character and ability that you should seek when you select a real estate agent.

I’m always ready to apply for the job of representing you – all you have to do is reach out to me!

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Few colonial homes for sale in Franklin

2012 saw a huge increase in home sales volume in Massachusetts.  The sales pace has kept up so far in 2013. There’s a general shortage of single family homes for sale throughout the I-495 high tech corridor and indeed across most of Massachusetts. But for colonial homes in Franklin, MA  supplies of available homes are extraordinarily – even historically – tight.

As shown in the image above, there were only 32 colonial homes for sale in Franklin in late February.  This compares to 54 Franklin colonials for sale this time last February, 73 colonials in late February 2011 and 75 colonials back in February 2010.

I went all the way back to the mid-1990s when Franklin was undergoing a home building boon and there were 100s of colonials for sale in Franklin  – since then, straight to today, NEVER have there been so few colonial homes for sale in Franklin on the MLS at this time of year just before the start of the spring market!

Tight inventory of colonials expressed as months of supply

Here’s how the inventory of colonial homes in Franklin looks as expressed as months-worth of supply:

What this means is that at the current rate of colonial home sales in Franklin, it would take only 2.7 months to sell all the colonial homes currently available in town.  This is a very low inventory of colonials and compares to  5.2 months of supply of Franklin colonials in February 2012 and 8.7 months in February two years ago.

Tight inventories lead to home price increases elsewhere in US

An article in the current edition of BusinessWeek details recent large gains in home prices ongoing in many areas of the US.

The article says metro-Phoenix is experiencing near boom conditions with a 22.9 percent increase in metro-Phoenix home prices in calendar year 2012 according to figures provided to BusinessWeek by the research firm CoreLogic.

Here’s how home values* are faring in select regions of the country according to BusinessWeek:

(*Note the percent gain for Phoenix in the graphic above is larger than the CoreLogic figure because it reflects 4^th quarter 2012 median prices compared to the 4^th quarter of 2011 rather than the price change for the full calendar year just ended as calculated by CoreLogic.)

The three factors contributing to the recent US home price gains cited by BusinessWeek are low mortgage rates, low inventories of homes for sale and a recovering local economy.  Sounds like conditions in Franklin, MA, doesn’t it?  It would seem Franklin is ripe for some price appreciation!

Colonial home owners in Franklin have an opportunity

Because the supply of colonials for sale in Franklin is currently so exceptionally low, Franklin colonial home sellers right now face very little competition – that’s great news for sellers!  If you live in Franklin and own a colonial,  Spring 2013 looks to be an  unparalleled opportunity to sell your home with pricing power.  So if you’ve been thinking of selling, now is the time to spring into action!  Explore your options – get the facts – contact Warren for a free, no-obligation Home Value Analysis!  Ask for one today!

Copyright ©2013 02038.com

If the recovery in home sales continues into 2012, it may mark the Bay State’s definitive emergence from a protracted period of weak home sales that came on the heels of the expiration of the Federal home buyer tax credit programs back in 2010.

Sales on par with pre-crisis 2007

This November’s home sales are significant not just because they exceeded the weak results of one year ago.

Last month’s sales exceeded November 2008’s production and were roughly on par with sales in November 2007, before the world financial crisis.  This is an encouraging sign of the real estate market building momentum.

Pending sales also rebounding

It was also good to see that pending sales in November 2011 were up significantly.  November’s pendings equaled 2009 levels, which were inflated by demand spurred on by the Federal tax credit programs.

Franklin, MA doing well

Homes sales and pending transactions in Franklin, Massachusetts last month mirrored results statewide:

November 2011’s production was up sharply in Franklin over the depressed levels of November 2010.

Federal tax policy skewed home sales in for past few years

November sales stats over the last few years clearly show the impact of Federal tax credit policy.

The Feds got started intervening in the real estate market in 2008 with a refundable tax credit to qualifying home buyers.  The 2008 credit had to be repaid.  It was in effect a tax-free loan and proved only moderately successful in stimulating home sales.

Sales exploded in 2009

2009 saw a new and improved Federal home buyer tax credit.  Because it did not have to be repaid it proved wildly popular.  This tax credit caused widespread increases in home sales volume and prices.

The 2009 tax credit was originally scheduled to expire in November 2009.

Massachusetts homes sales in November 2009 exploded some 60% above November 2008’s sales volume as many buyers rushed to close home purchases before the end of that month.

Sales collapsed in 2010

As it turned out, the tax credit did not expire as scheduled in November 2009.

Instead the Federal government extended the credit through April 2010 and created a second homebuyer tax credit.  The second credit was also set to end in April 2010.

Home buyers responded by going on a tax credit fueled bender. Home sales surged from the end of 2009 right until the two tax credits expired April 30, 2010.

Then the party was over. By mid-2010 the real estate market was not a pretty sight.  Homes sales and prices withered.

By November 2010, Massachusetts homes sales were down nearly 35% from the year before.

Back on track for 2012?

After protracted weakness that lasted from mid-2010 well into 2011, home sales have been recovering in Massachusetts.  The strong results for November 2011 may be setting the stage for continued improvement in the local real estate market for 2012.

Copyright ©2011 02038.com

July sales way up over July 2010 levels

The +19% jump in MA homes sales last month over July 2010 production levels may be an early sign of a market seeking to regain its footing.

July’s good performance comes on the heels of the announcement late last month by Standard and Poors that Greater Boston home prices recently rose for the first time in months.

The Franklin, MA real estate market likewise shared in the good sales volume of the month just ended:

Homes are selling

It is way too early for unbridled optimism, but a recent personal experience of mine lends credence to the suggestion that there is potential for Massachusetts home sellers to do well in today’s market.

I sold an appealing antique home in Westborough for full price in less than a week of marketing time!

The excellent location contributed to this quick sale, but this does prove that if you price your Massachusetts home correctly, the property will sell!

Market has a long way to go

If you are a prospective home buyer or real estate investor, let July’s sales boost motivate you to grab a good deal; there are still considerable bargains to be had.

Despite the strong sales figures for July, a look back at July home sale results for years past shows how far MA real estate has to go before regaining the vigorous activity levels of the 2003 – 2005 boom years:

July 2011’s results were only 7.2% off the pace of July 2008 and 10% below that of July 2006, so in that context today’s market activity is encouraging.

But the difference in home sales activity is a lot greater when July 2011’s results are compared to July 2005 (-31.5%) and July 2004 (-38.3%).

Smart time to trade-up or buy your first home

Clearly in light of those latter percentages, the turnover of homes in the current market is still greatly reduced.  Today’s buyers are being cautious and there are fewer of them.

For many practical reasons, that relative lack of demand means now’s a highly advantageous time to buy your first home or trade up/out to a better home.

The home of your dreams costs a lot less than it did in 2005 and mortgage interest rates are very low.  That means your cost of ownership is low.  If you own a home, you CAN sell it quickly and for a fair price; you just need to price properly and have an expert marketing representative.

So if you are thinking of buying your first home or moving to a better one, Fall 2011 looks to present an ideal opportunity!

Copyright ©2011 02038.com

Home prices to rise in 2012?

But the consensus forecast also calls for a home price rebound in 2012, so what gives?  Is now the time to buy a home in Massachusetts?

The answers may lie in putting today’s inventory levels in context with both 2010 and 2009 supply:

When viewed as depicted in the chart above, the current quantity of homes for sale in MA seems more consistent with a market seeking equilibrium after the end of the Federal home buyer tax credits in 2010 and hopefully getting ready for a stronger 2012.

Supply of MA homes way up over 2010 levels

In the three regional MA markets tracked by this blog, the supply of homes currently for sale is substantially higher than 2010 levels.

Using data supplied by MLSPIN, there is an 11.5 month supply of single family homes for sale in Massachusetts.  This is a 21% increase in standing inventory over the 9.5 months of inventory in June 2010.

The situation is similar in the Town of Franklin, MA (26% bulge in supply over June 2010) and the regional market surrounding Franklin (17.4% increase).

Current inventory comparable to 2009 levels

But today’s housing inventory looks dangerously bloated only if compared to 2010 when supply was depleted by a massive rush to buy homes caused by the two Federal home buyer tax credits.

Once the tax credits expired, the market cooled, sales declined and the inventory of homes for sale began to rise back to 2009 levels.

Compared with the 11.2 months of housing supply that existed 2 years ago in June 2009, today’s 11.5 months of inventory in MA is only 2.7% higher.  This may represent more of a reversion to the post-financial-crash baseline rather than a new collapse of housing demand.

While the current supply of homes for sale in Franklin (up 6.6%) and the Franklin regional market (8.3% rise) is more steeply elevated over where it stood in June 2009, these are small market samples that may be subject to more variation than the state-wide inventory readings.

Time to buy?

Current inventory conditions do seem conducive to weakness in MA home prices for the rest of 2011.

But there is nothing in today’s housing inventory levels in Massachusetts that make the forecast 2012 MA home price rise improbable.

So now may be a great home buying opportunity; indeed it is according to:

The Wall Street Journal

Forbes Magazine and

CBS Moneywatch

Copyright ©2011 02038.com

The encouraging local economic trends may have been easily overlooked, but they provide good reason for you to feel optimistic about your financial future in Massachusetts.

Dow up 80% from 2009 lows

Back at the absolute stock market lows of November 2008 – March 2009, there was lots of panic selling by retirees and those nearing retirement who “couldn’t afford lose it all.”

Think of how many of those people must be suffering severe regrets now that the Dow is up so much.  And think of how good you’d be feeling today if you had bought stock in February or March 2009!

The rising stock market may be signaling better times ahead for the U.S. economy – such strong stock market rises often do.

Stock profits raising Massachusetts tax receipts

Surging stock prices and an improving local economy have led to a big rise in tax receipts for Massachusetts this year.

Quoting from the news report:

“In a sign of the growing economy, state Revenue Commissioner Navjeet K. Bal on Tuesday announced that for the fiscal year to date, tax collections total $16.860 billion, up $1.927 billion, or 12.9 percent, from last year, and $732 million more than projections.”

MA economy growing at twice the national rate

The Bay State economy is picking up steam in 2011.  More business activity should start helping the local job market, further bolstering tax receipts and consumer spending.

Below are excerpts from several reports on this:

“Massachusetts’ economic growth surged ahead of the overall United States in the first quarter of 2011, buoyed by the state’s technology-intensive industries, a report said on Thursday.  The real gross state product grew at an annual estimated rate of 4.2 percent, more than double the national economy’s expansion of 1.8 percent, said the study by MassBenchmarks, a quarterly journal published by the University of Massachusetts.”

“A new report says the Massachusetts economy expanded more than twice as fast as the nation’s as a whole in the first quarter of the year, driven largely by the technology sector.

The University of Massachusetts report released Thursday said global demand for technology products and increased business spending on software and equipment have provided a boost for the state.”

“This past month, the University of Massachusetts’ MassBenchmarks journal showed the Bay State is doing very well, thank you, as it ships its tech wares across the globe, including various software and equipment. The state’s so-called “growth premium,” says the journal, “appears largely to be a function of the strength of the Massachusetts innovation economy that, unlike in recent recessions, helped buffer Massachusetts from the ‘Great Recession’ and has been a growing driver during the recovery period.”

MA business confidence rises

Confidence among MA businesses has risen to its highest level since 2007, reflecting improving conditions in the Bay State.

Quoting from the article:

“Associated Industries of Massachusetts Business Confidence Index was 56.1 points in April, up 2.1 points from 54 points in March. Associated Industries plots business confidence on a scale of 1 to 100 where 50 is neutral and anything greater than 50 is positive.”

Putting this all together – time to invest?

The good economic news should perhaps spur you to consider smart contrarian investing to take advantage of the pessimistic sentiment about real estate so prevalent during these times of continued uncertainty.

Contrarian investing is a time-honored way to build investment profits by buying when negativity predominates and selling when others are overly enthusiastic about buying.

Take the stock market: the time to buy was February and March 2009 when everyone was saying “sell”, the Dow was at its lows and pessimism was rampant.

Stocks have had a such a strong run-up, so instead of chasing stocks, look at real estate in MA while the market is still weak.

MA home prices certainly are down.  And the local economy is continuing to improve.

How about buying an inexpensive condo or multi-family home as an investment property?  If you’re not ready to be a landlord, perhaps now’s a good time to trade up to a better home.

Contact Warren to learn more!

Copyright ©2011 02038.com

2010 housing inventory reduced by home buying rush

Last April there were 9 months of housing supply in MA.  Housing supply was whittled down last April by a home buying surge as buyers across the state rushed to secure homes to qualify for the then-expiring Federal home buyer tax credits.

With the tax credits and the April 2010 buying binge now just fading memories, Massachusetts housing inventory has risen roughly back in line with April 2009 levels.  Seen in this context, the increased inventory of homes for sale in Massachusetts compared to last year may not represent a worrisome new trend, so much as a return to a slower pace of home sales in the absence of the Federal tax credits’ stimulus.

Inventory up in I-495 market around Franklin

According to MLSPIN, the standing inventory of homes for sale in the greater Franklin, MA region has also bulged this year.

There are currently 11.3 months of supply of single family homes for sale in the I-495 communities surrounding Franklin, compared to 9.4 months last April.

Just as with Massachusetts overall, this increase puts the region’s housing inventory on par with April 2009’s levels.

In the Town of Franklin, MA itself, there are 10.8 months of homes for sale this April (compared to 7.7 months last year at this time and 9.4 months back in April 2009).

Absorption rate analysis may be misleading this spring

Tracking changes in housing inventory is one time-honored way to monitor the health of the real estate market. (Click the hotlink to learn more about absorption rate analysis.)

Rising inventory traditionally is cited as a sign of a real estate market in trouble.

Housing inventory today certainly is higher than it was one year ago.

However, traditional absorption analysis may provide an overly pessimistic take on the future direction real estate in Massachusetts in 2011.

Two factors to weigh

There are two factors lending credence to the suggestion to discount the importance of today’s higher inventory levels.

Back in April 2010, housing inventory was depleted by that home buying rush to qualify for the Federal home buyer tax credits.  So April 2010 is arguably a poor measure against which to judge the real estate market in April 2011.

Secondly, the 2011 home buying season has been slow to start.

In past years, the “spring” market sometimes has gotten under way as early as mid-February.

This January and February saw very heavy snowfall.  Protracted periods of bad weather lingered well into March.  This has slowed the advent of home buyer activity this spring.

So a ‘wait and see’ attitude with absorption rate analysis appears warranted.

Market watchers should check back with this blog in coming months for upcoming hosing inventory reports.

We will watch the local real estate market with a keen eye, looking very carefully for some much-hoped-for signs of gathering strength.

Copyright ©2011 02038.com